The Speculation Blues

Lyrics by Mark T. Hebner   (revised lyrics)
©2006 IFA Publishing, Inc.
May 28, 2006


 



 

 


The allure of quick riches
begs you to be active
But the record shows
you’re better off
passive

Professors came to
a devastating conclusion
The active advantage
was just an illusion

The news of capitalism
takes another spin
Some traders will lose
and some will win

The stock market game
can be an addiction
Along with the search
for the perfect prediction

Traders devour the news
like a school of piranha
The passive find peace
in a tradeless nirvana

The wagers laid down
on predicting the news
Will surely bring on
the Speculation Blues


Lots of scholars toiled
at many Universities
And determined that risk
was just
probabilities

They concluded that all
would be served to diversify
And tell their stock brokers
"good luck and goodbye"

While traders should follow
Nobel Laureates
They just keep makin'
those long and short
bets

Don’t put all your eggs in one basket
said Harry and your Mama
And markets are random
said Professor Eugene Fama

Once you get the efficient
market hypothesis
You’ll no longer be fooled
by market randomness

The stockaholics search
for the best stock to choose
and sink themselves deeper in
the Speculation Blues


Instead of Morgan or Mellon
Barney or Lynch
Your better off with Bogle
or Fama and French

Listen to their predictions
those pundits are proud
Forget all that
Accept the wisdom of the crowd

For the knowledge of many
throughout the land
Will act like the all-knowing
invisible hand

There ain't no such thing
as a free lunch
But the pickers think
they can profit from a hunch

While your broker was able
to buy the finest yacht
His trading of your stocks
was all for naught

But to stop those commissions
He's sure to refuse
And this will bring on
the Speculation Blues


While the market timers think
they make a killin' on a trend
The indexers end up
with more moola to spend

The lucky seemed to be
christened as skilled
While every quarter their faithful
continue to be billed

The fund managers act
as though taxes don't matter
But when indexers file their 1040s
Uncle Sam's a lot sadder

For most investors
Silent partners enjoy a feast
But from index trackers
they get the very least

Active investors think
returns come from speculation
But indexers know
it's just risk compensation

So the trades placed online
guessin' tomorrow's news
Will drag those day traders
into the Speculation Blues


So before investing
your hard earned green
Get a good feelin'
for the variance and the mean

The prudent investor
is best served
By the careful observation
of how the bell is curved

For when it's narrow
and the average is high
The active investor can’t beat it
no matter how hard they try

What the stock broker needs
is a long term histogram
and to get into an active investor's
12-Step Program

Risk takers need
to assess their capacity
Then hang on to their exposure
with firm tenacity

And while the indexers relax
on a Caribbean Cruise
The active investor's singin'
the Speculation Blues


         www.ifa.com
P
©2006 Index Funds Advisors, Inc. All rights reserved.
 
This site is for the use of clients and potential clients of Index Funds Advisors, Inc. and the IFA Network Members. It is not to be used by any other investment advisor or investment professional as an information/marketing materials source, asset allocator, risk capacity or risk tolerance assessment, or for any other purpose. The right to download, store and/or output any material on this internet site, or the Index Funds: The 12-Step Program for Active Investors eBook, is granted for viewing use only and this grant only applies to clients and potential clients of Index Funds Advisors, Inc. and the IFA Network Members. Reproduction or editing by any means, mechanical or electronic, in whole or in part, without the express written permission of Index Funds Advisors, Inc. is strictly prohibited and subject to prosecution under U.S. and International copyright and trademark laws.

DISCLAIMER: THERE ARE NO WARRANTIES, EXPRESSED OR IMPLIED, AS TO ACCURACY, COMPLETENESS, OR RESULTS OBTAINED FROM ANY INFORMATION POSTED ON THIS OR ANY LINKED INTERNET SITE. Your use of this site is acknowledgment that you have read and understood the full disclaimer.

WARNING: Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investment returns and principal value will fluctuate, so that investors' shares, when sold, may be worth more or less than their original cost. Investing in any mutual fund, index or actively managed, does not guarantee that an investor will make money, avoid losing capital, or indicate that the investment is risk-free. Actively managed funds sometimes outperform index funds. You just don't know in advance which actively managed fund will outperform the appropriate index. Just because a mutual fund is an index mutual fund, it does not guarantee a performance superior to an actively managed mutual fund. There are no absolute guarantees in investing. When reviewing any backtested performance information on this internet site, please read the Disclosure for Backtested Performance Information (click here to read the Disclosure for Backtested Performance Information.)
4 Verse